石油開發(fā)期權(quán)評估條件及參數(shù)研究.pdf

1、西安石油大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文石油開發(fā)期權(quán)評估條件及參數(shù)研究姓名：胡娟申請學(xué)位級別：碩士專業(yè)：企業(yè)管理指導(dǎo)教師：李志學(xué)20090520英文摘要Subject：ThecharacteristicofoptioninoildevelopmentandthehypothesisconditionofapplyingBSmodelSpeciality：BusinessManagementName：HuJuan(signatureInstructor：

2、LiZhixue(signatureABSTRACTTheoilistheimportantandnon—renewableresourceWiththeshortageoftheresource，theeconomicbenefitsofthepetroleumenterprisebecomesmoreimportantTheinvestmentinpetroleumdevelopmentprojectistimeconsuminga

3、ndirreversible，andhasahighlevelofuncertaintywhichengendersopportuni哆valueoftheinvestmentThetraditionaldecisionmakingsofinvestmentinpetroleumdevelopmentprojecthavealotofweaknesses，whichignoretherealoptionsvalueofsuchinves

4、tmentandunderestimatethetruevalue，theninturninevitablyleadtowrongdecisionsBysummaryofthestudyofrealoptionusedinoildevelopmentobjectevaluationathomeandabroad，thepaperhasdiscoveredthedeficiencyofusingrealoptioninChina’Soil

5、development，namelyintheoildevelopmentprojectsinappliedresearch，someresearcherusetheBSmodelindiscriminately，buttheydon’ttestthehypothesisconditionofapplyingBSmodel，anddon’testimateallimportantparameter一fluctuationratio，SO

6、basedonwhichthepaperhasalsoanalyzedthecharacteristicofoptioninoildevelopmentandthehypothesisconditionofapplyingBSmodelThatistosayastheunderlyingasset，whetherthecrudeoilpricefollowthegeometricBrownianmotion，andwhetherther

7、eturnsrateofthecontinuouslvcompoundedinterestiSofnormaldistributionfeatureTwomethodsofWtestandksinspectionareusedtoanalyzethestatisticsofcrudeoilpriceinNewYorkandLondonpetroleumexchange，validatethehypothesisthatoilpricef

8、ollowtheruleoflogarithmnormaldistribution，andtofurtherexploretheimpactofrisingtrendofcrudeoilonthetestresultsFinallyweresearchtheparameterfluctuationratioofBSmodel，andputforwardthecomprehensiveestimationmethodsunderthemo