人民幣均衡匯率水平與匯率失調(diào)研究.pdf

1、獨(dú)創(chuàng)性聲明本人聲明所呈交的學(xué)位論文是本人在導(dǎo)師指導(dǎo)下進(jìn)行的研究工作及取得的研究成果。據(jù)我所知，除了文中特別加以標(biāo)注和致謝的地方外，論文中不包含其他人已經(jīng)發(fā)表或撰寫過的研究成果，也不包含為獲得安徽大學(xué)或其他教育機(jī)構(gòu)的學(xué)位或證書而使用過的材料。與我一同工作的同志對本研究所做的任何貢獻(xiàn)均已在論文中作了明確的說明并表示謝意。學(xué)位論文作者簽名：馬雨簽字日期：2。f6年6月6日學(xué)位論文版權(quán)使用授權(quán)書本學(xué)位論文作者完全了解安徽大學(xué)有關(guān)保留、使用學(xué)位論

2、文的規(guī)定，有權(quán)保留并向國家有關(guān)部門或機(jī)構(gòu)送交論文的復(fù)印件和磁盤，允許論文被查閱和借閱。本人授權(quán)安徽大學(xué)可以將學(xué)位論文的全部或部分內(nèi)容編入有關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)庫進(jìn)行檢索，可以采用影印、縮印或掃描等復(fù)制手段保存、匯編學(xué)位論文。(保密的學(xué)位論文在解密后適用本授權(quán)書)學(xué)位論文作者簽名：瑪麗導(dǎo)師簽名：已云。7一I簽字日期：2。J6年6月6日簽字日期：1／o【＆年6月毛日AbstractTheexchangerateisanimportantfactorfor

3、economiccommunicationbetweencountries，ifitwasunbalanced，Thecountry’Sinternalequilibriumandextemalequilibriumareallaffected，Especiallyforextemalequilibrium，thentheequilibriumexchangerateisanimportantbasisforcheckingwhethe

4、rtheexchangerateisunbalancedNowadays，Chinahasanimportantpositionintheinternationaltrade，WhethertherealexchangerateimbalanceseriouslyaffecttheeconomicrelationshipbetweenChinaandtradingpartners，theequilibriumexchangerateis

5、sueshasbecomeahottopicofmanycountriesSomewestemcountriesthattradingwithChinathinktheexchangerateofRMBhasbeengrosslyunderestimatedinthepast20yearsiftheexchangerateWasundervaluedSeverelyitwouldmakethetradedeficitofthesecou

6、ntriesgetmorebigandaffectnationaleconomicdevelopmentTherefore，theyurgedtheRMBexchangerateappreciated，however，iftheexchangerateWasappreciatedexcessivelyChina’Seconomywillalsobeaffected，thenwhethertherealexchangerateofRMBW

7、asundervaluedexcessivelyinthelongtermaswesterncountriessaidInthiscontext，EstimatingtheequilibriumexchangerateandwhethertheexchangerateisunbalancedwillbemoreusefulInthispaperwefirstlycombedtheexchangerateofrelativetermand

8、thefivemainstreamtheoriesoftheequilibriumexchangerate，andchoosetherealeffectiveexchangerateasinterpretedvariableintheempiricalanalysis，decidedusethebehavioralequilibriumexchangeratetheoryasthemodelbasefortheempiricalstua

9、yintheanalysisoftheseequilibriumexchangeratetheoriesWhenwechooseeconomicfundamentalsasexplanatoryvariables，wealsoconsideredtheactualsituationofChinalikeastheproportionofruralpopulationthenusingunitroottest，thetwostepofEG

10、andHPfilteringtechnologytocalculatetheequilibriumexchangerateofeveryyearCalculatedthedegreeofimbalanceoftheexchangerateandanalyzedthereasonsindifferentstagesTheempiricalresultshows：Tradeopenness，netassetsabroad，governmen