股票市場外文翻譯

1、<p>　　中文4500字，2890單詞，英文字符15350</p><p>　　The earliest research on the “mysterious volatility” of stock market was from LeRoy & Porter (1981) and Shiller (1981). They found that the actual volatility

2、of the stock price was always higher than the theoretical value from the Variance border examination. Therefore they came to a conclusion that the variation of actual stock price is relatively higher as to the fundamenta

3、ls of the stock. That is to say, there is a phenomenon of " undue volatility". Shiller believe that if the stock price in </p><p>　　Chinese scholars have noticed the same phenomenon. Xu Jianguo (20

4、10) indicates that the rate of return in China's A-share index in the past 1-5 years can make a opposite prediction of that in the next 1-5 years, which suggests that stock prices have some unstable components of und

5、ue volatility that exist in most of the industries. And only agriculture, forestry and fishing, gas, and water supply enterprises don’t have the problem.</p><p>　　Jin Dehuan and Wang Yu Ming (2012) quantized

6、 the rate of return to the undue volatility stock for the first time by using the square deviation index. Based on the actual proof of A share’s daily rate of return from 1995 to 2010. They indicates that there is undue

7、volatility in the A share market’ daily rate of return caused by the investors’ overreaction, and this additional risk expels the rational investors who tend to avoid risks, making underestimations in the stock market.&l

8、t;/p><p>　　Zhou Hongrong (2012) Et al tested China's A shares data from year 1994 to 2009 and found that whether constant excess rate of return model or V-CAMP model cannot explain the “mysterious volatilit

9、y” existing in our A shares market.Measurable methods that are studied to measure the undue volatility are as following:</p><p>　　The method used most often at home and abroad is the method of stock return

10、 rate autocorrelation, which corresponds with the theory of the effective market assumption. It holds the view that the present stock price has fully represented reflect all the information (Fama, 1970&1991). The eff

11、ective market assumption is divided into three parts, including strong, medium and weak assumptions, which are matched to all the trading, public, undisclosed, disclosed information respectively. If the market</p>

12、<p>　　Shiller (1981)first adopted the second method. He compared the future profit discount with actual and historical prices to see the variation between actual prices and calculated ones by using historical stock

13、 data to approximately calculate the actual value of stock, that is, through fundamental researches.</p><p>　　The third often used is time-analyzing method. It is a way relatively suitable for individual sto

14、ck study. It make a judgment whether the reaction of stock price is promote and accurate by observing the effect that some specific incidents have on stock price. But there is a problem in this method. It is difficult fo

15、r the investigators to separate the price variation from incidents. However, in actual life, it is difficult to find relevant incidents to big price variation(Culter, poterba & Summer</p><p>　　Another of

16、ten used method is to divide stock into "winner team" and “l(fā)oser team” in accordance with the profit rate in the past to compare the future rate of return. Because the effective market assumption indicates that

17、 the stock price in the future should be random, Therefore there is little difference between two teams. But if there is a phenomenon of overreaction, the “winner team” profit rate will be reversed, So in the future the

18、rate of return of "winner team" may be lower than that of </p><p>　　In addition, there are some indicators that can account for undue volatility in the early times. Jijian (2011) made a summary o

19、f the four methods that can measure the undue volatility of stock price : earnings ratio (P / E), stock market capitalization / GDP, stock price bubbles expansion rate and stock price bubbles degree. These four methods h

20、ave some deficiencies, so they are not accurate measurement implement of undue volatility, but they are of certain reference significance.</p><p>　　The explanation of the phenomenon </p><p>　　Be

21、hind the undue volatility of stock prices there are some very complicated mechanism. Therefore in the existing research, especially in the domestic literature, the causes are not being discussed comprehensively. This art

22、icle made a summary of some of the points in literature in the past, and put forward some explanations. It mainly discuss some possible factors from three aspects: investors, quoted companies and countries.</p>&

23、lt;p>　　3.1 investors </p><p>　　3.1.1 The cognitive offset of investors </p><p>　　The study on the irrational behaviors of investors comes from the rise of economics. Researchers began to cons

24、ider that a individual’ cognitive deviation may be caused by the decision of deviation. Behavioral economics was first created by Mr Kahneman, whose prospect theory emphasizes people’ cognitive differences, and explains

25、the investors' tendency of hatred towards risk.</p><p>　　Miller (1997) demonstrated that without empty mechanism in the market, every investor disagrees on the same stock, so it usually should be determ

26、ined by the most optimistic investors, which makes stock prices tend to be overestimated. Delong, Shleifer, Summers & Waldmann (DSSW) has established "noise trader model", which plays an important role in t

27、he determination of the stock price, and the effective market will fail (1990) with too much noise. </p><p>　　The commonplace cognitive deviation are mainly as follows: 1, overconfidence: that is, people alw

28、ays tend to overestimate their own judgment of things. This phenomenon is very common in the process of stock trading. The extreme stock prices caused by overconfidence is most the important reason for the undue volatili

29、ty of the stock price. Tekce & Y ? lmaz (2015) study found that overconfidence is very common in the individual investors in the stock market, and it is more common in young man and l</p><p>　　So we Spec

30、ulate that overconfidence may be an important factor of the share prices volatility. 2, reference point: which means people often need to find a compared reference in the process of making decisions, and the choice of po

31、int is subjective. In the process of stock trading, people tend to compare the stock with the same range, and this could lead to a general overestimation of prices in the same filed. 3,the hatred towards risk: which mean

32、s the price variation of equal value, and the psyc</p><p>　　3.1.2 the emotional effects of the investors </p><p>　　Lee, Shleifer and Thaler (LST) , based on DSSW, put forward the investor emoti

33、onal assumption, which supports that the change of the discount can be explained by the change of investor’ emotions (1991). Wei-hua zhu and Zhang Zongxin(2008) found in their study that the investors’ emotion are easily

34、 influencd by noisy traders, and other traders can skillfully utilize the strategy of noisy traders to get excess profits in the gambling. In the mechanism of market volatility, there is a dynamic rela</p><p&

35、gt;　　Through establishing the investors` behavior model of the stock market, Westerhoff (2004) finds that the stock market shows a rising trend on the whole, but sometimes the share price falls sharply; investors can re

36、main cool when the fluctuation of the stock price is low, but it will generate the investors both greed and fear no matter the stock price is turning high or low when the stock price fluctuation is higher. This kind of e

37、motional fluctuations as the positive feedback of the share price</p><p>　　There are abundant research accomplishments about the influence towards the emotion on individual decision-making in the field of ps

38、ychology. Ma Ying `s (2009) study shows that different emotional valence can lead to different influence towards individuals` decision-making behavior. Individuals can bid higher under the positive emotion. On the contra

39、ry, individual may bid low under the negative valence. Therefore, shareholders are in high spirit in the bull market thus leading to a more aggressi</p><p>　　3.1.3 The immature characteristics of the investo

40、rs</p><p>　　Because Chinese stock market is relatively young, most investors are short of experience. On the one hand, many Chinese shareholders don’t have enough knowledge and experience related to the stoc

41、k market, so most of them choose to follow the investment strategy of "chasing the rises and ignoring the fall", which may causes the excessive volatility of the share price; on the other hand, some investors m

42、ay have great fear after experiencing the sharp drop in the history of Chinese stock market, th</p><p>　　On the other hand, the Chinese investors` financing structure isn’t mature. The majority of Chinese sh

43、areholders are retails—the cost of financing is higher; the portfolio is of the single contents and the higher leverage, which gives rise to the limitation of their risk-bearing ability and the unwillingness of holding t

44、he stock for a long term, therefore makes their speculative nature more obvious. High leverage leads to the so-called "herd behavior": government policy’s being read too much; in</p><p>　　3.2 quote

45、d company</p><p>　　3.2.1 Information disclosure</p><p>　　Keown and Pinkerton`s (1981) study showed that the 40% - 50% rise of the share price appears before the public release of the merger anno

46、uncement, so they affirm that the insider dealing is prevalent. Zeng Ying, Lu Zhengfei (2006) found that the quality of information disclosure influences the cost of equity financing. Hence, a fine information disclosure

47、 makes for the formation of a reasonable share price. However, according to Wu Shuxia’s (2006) study, the information disclosure of China’s sec</p><p>　　The main problems of the information disclosure includ

48、e the authenticity and accuracy issues. (Chen Zhengrong & pan Hermione, 2012). The distortion of the information disclosure of China’s listed corporations majorly performed in the phenomenon of false statements and m

49、isrepresentation, which means to make inconsistent record of the truth on the documents of information disclosure. From the content of Information disclosure violations, it refers to the connected transaction, the illega

50、l guarante</p><p>　　The imperfection of the company information disclosure gives rise to investors’ inability to get all the information when choosing which company to invest, thus unable to make decisions r

51、ationally. Because of the uncertainty of the information, investors usually add their subjective speculations to the investment decision-making process, which is one of the important factors that causing the excessive fl

52、uctuation of share price.</p><p>　　3.2.2 Business transformation</p><p>　　Nowadays, China is in the industrial transition. Quite a few enterprises begin to adjust their business strategies, incr

53、ease the industrial innovation, increase the investment in research and development, which increase the uncertainty of investors enterprises’ judgment in the future, so the gap between different investors’ judgment is e

54、nlarged, too. According to Yao Kaohua(2013) and his fellow teammates’ study based on the stock of gem, investors in the stock market can give reactions when the</p><p>　　3.3 The national level</p>&l

55、t;p>　　3.3.1 Macro economy</p><p>　　There are some inner relations between the share price volatility and the macro economy to some extent, economic conditions can influence the operating conditions of the

56、 enterprises, thus further influence the rate of return of the stock market. This kind of stock market known as " the barometer" of the national economy. According to Hamilton’s (1996) study, the volatility of

57、 the stock market shows the global economic activity has prediction functions to some extent. Ebell & Haefke(2009) Ebell </p><p>　　Liu Jiashu (2008) made a research on the macro economy China long-term c

58、hanges and came to the conclusion that there was a positive correlation between the share price and macro economy. According to Xiao Bianying’s (2004) study, , the growth of China's SHi index and the GDP and currency

59、 remain the same in the long term, while remain a positive correlation with prices, interest rates and the exchange rates, which is on the contrary with the short-term conclusion.</p><p>　　3.3.2 National pol

60、icy</p><p>　　The relationship between the fluctuation of stock price and the national policy is unspoken, especially in China, the stock market cannot work well without the support of the national policy. Li

61、 Chenggang (2003) holds the opinion that China’s stock market is related to the special “policy market" system closely. Peng Wenping and Ji Hui Xiao’s (2002) study shows that government’s using policy to adjust the

62、stock market cannot stabilize the stock market but leads to the aggravation of the stock ma</p><p>　　3.3.3 Institutional factors</p><p>　　The increase of the negotiable shares after The equity d

63、ivision system reform greatly relieves the estimation-lacking problem in China stock market. However, from the view of China's stock issuing system itself, the harsh-examined and difficult-listed system still restric

64、t the number of listed corporations to a great extent. Due to the out-of-balance between supply and demand the stock price is raised high, and excessive price fluctuations rise in the stock market. On the other hand, owi

65、ng to th</p><p>　　最早對于股票市場的“波動性之謎”的研究源自于LeRoy & Porter(1981)和Shiller(1981)，他們通過方差邊界的檢驗發(fā)現(xiàn)早期美國股市實際股價的波動總是大于理論值，因此他們得出結(jié)論稱相對于股票的基本面而言，實際股價的變化幅度較大，也就是說存在著“過度波動”的現(xiàn)象。Shiller認為如果當前的股票價格等于未來收入流的貼現(xiàn)值，那么只有未被預期到的收入流變

66、化才會引起估價的變化，因此股價的變動幅度應(yīng)該小于收入流的變動，但數(shù)據(jù)卻恰恰相反。隨后，F(xiàn)ama & French(1988)，Poterba & Summers(1988)采用美國以及其他17個較發(fā)達國家的數(shù)據(jù)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，在3-5年的時間間隔內(nèi)股票指數(shù)的回報率都是負向自相關(guān)的，也就是說存在著股指對過度波動的修正。Culter，Poterba & Summer(1991)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)這種過度波動現(xiàn)象不僅僅存在于股票市場，

67、還存在于債券、外匯、古董和貴金屬交易市場。</p><p>　　中國的學者也發(fā)現(xiàn)了同樣的現(xiàn)象。徐建國(2010)通過回報率自相關(guān)法研究表明，我國A股指數(shù)過去1-5年的回報率能夠反向預測未來1-5年的回報率，這表明股票價格含有過度波動的不穩(wěn)定成分；而且這種過度波動存在于大多數(shù)的行業(yè)，僅有農(nóng)林牧漁和店里、煤氣、水供應(yīng)企業(yè)不存在該現(xiàn)象。金德環(huán)和汪宇明(2012)首次采用方差差指標對股票回報率過度波動進行量化，基于199

68、5年至2010年的A股日回報率實證結(jié)果表明，A股市場日回報率波動中存在投資者過度反應(yīng)導致的過度波動，這種額外的風險“驅(qū)逐”了風險回避的理性投資者，使得股市出現(xiàn)低估。周洪榮等人(2012)對我國A股1994年-2009年期間的數(shù)據(jù)進行檢驗發(fā)現(xiàn)無論是常數(shù)超額收益率模型還是V-CAMP模型都無法對我國A股市場存在的“波動性之謎”做出解釋。</p><p>　　當前研究中測量過度波動的數(shù)據(jù)測度方法主要有以下幾種：<

69、/p><p>　　國內(nèi)外使用最多的方法是股票回報率自相關(guān)法，它對應(yīng)的理論是有效市場假說。該假說認為當前的股票價格已經(jīng)充分反映了全部信息(Fama, 1970&1991)。有效市場假說分為強、中、弱三個假說，分別對應(yīng)了市場上全部的交易信息、公開信息和所有公開未公開的信息。如果市場是有效的，那么股票的各種信息都不能被用來預測未來的股票回報率，因此股價在未來的表現(xiàn)應(yīng)該為隨機游走。如果存在著對信息的過度反應(yīng)，那么這種

70、反應(yīng)在未來會得到修正，因此就會發(fā)生股票價格的反轉(zhuǎn)，也就是說股票的回報率在反轉(zhuǎn)發(fā)生的時間段內(nèi)應(yīng)該存在著負向的自相關(guān)。</p><p>　　第二種方法是Shiller(1981)最早采用的方法。通過股票的歷史數(shù)據(jù)近似的計算股票的真實價值，也就是通過基本面研究，將未來的收益貼現(xiàn)，然后與實際的歷史價格進行比較，看實際價格與其計算出的貼現(xiàn)價值之間的波動大小。</p><p>　　第三種常用的方法是時

71、間分析法，這是比較適用于個股研究的一種方法。通過觀察具體的事件對股票價格的影響，判斷股票的反應(yīng)是否迅速而準確。但是這種方法存在著一定的問題，研究者很難把股價變動中該事件產(chǎn)生的影響剝離出來，而且現(xiàn)實中往往有些很大的價格變動難以找到對應(yīng)的事件(Culter, poterba & Summers, 1989)。</p><p>　　另外一種比較常見的方法是將股票按照過去的收益率劃分成“贏者組合”和“輸者組合”，

72、比較兩種組合的未來回報率。因為有效市場假說表明股價未來應(yīng)該為隨機游走，因此“贏者組合”和“輸者組合”未來回報率應(yīng)該沒有顯著差異。但是，如果存在著過度反應(yīng)的現(xiàn)象，“贏者組合”的收益率會出現(xiàn)反轉(zhuǎn)，因此在未來“贏者組合”的回報率可能會低于“輸者組合”。</p><p>　　此外早期還有一些指標可以說明過度波動。季健(2011)總結(jié)了測量股價過度波動的四個方法：市盈率法（P/E）、股市市值/GDP、股價泡沫膨脹率和股價泡

73、沫度。這四種方法都存在一定的缺陷，因此不能作為準確測量過度波動的工具，但都具有一定的參考意義。</p><p><b>　　現(xiàn)象解釋</b></p><p>　　股價的過度波動背后有非常復雜的機制，因此現(xiàn)有研究中，尤其是國內(nèi)文獻，對原因的綜述性探討比較少，本文總結(jié)了以往的一些文獻中的觀點，并提出了一些自己的解釋，在這里主要從投資者、上市公司和國家三個層面嘗識性的提出一

74、些可能的影響因素。</p><p><b>　　3.1 投資者</b></p><p>　　3.1.1 投資者的認知偏差</p><p>　　對于投資者非理性行為的研究源自于行為經(jīng)濟學的興起，研究者開始考慮到個體受到的認知偏差而導致的決策偏差。行為經(jīng)濟學最早是由Kahneman開創(chuàng)的，在他的前景理論中強調(diào)了人們認知上的差異，解釋了投資者的風險厭

75、惡傾向。Miller(1997)論證了在沒有做空機制的市場下，每個投資者對同一個股票價位存在意見分歧，那么這個股票的價格通常是由最樂觀的投資者決定的，因此股票價格往往被高估。Delong, Shleifer, Summers & Waldmann (DSSW)建立了“噪聲交易者模型”，該模型認為噪聲在股價決定中發(fā)揮了重要的作用，噪聲過大將導致有效市場失敗(1990)。</p><p>　　常見的認知偏差主

76、要有以下幾種：1、過度自信：即人們往往會高估自己對事物的判斷，這種現(xiàn)象在股票交易過程中屢見不鮮，由于過度自信造成的股票價格的極端化是股票價格過度波動的重要原因。Tekçe & Y?lmaz (2015)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，過度自信行為在股票市場的個人投資者中非常普遍，有較多男性、年輕、低資產(chǎn)組合價值、低收入和教育的地區(qū)存在更多的過度自信現(xiàn)象。這種過度自信通常是對資產(chǎn)組合價值有害的，往往造成對股價的高估。因此我們猜測過度自信可能是

77、造成股價波動的一個重要原因。2、參照點：指的是人們在作出決策的過程中往往需要與一個參照物進行比較，而參照點的選擇具有很大的主觀性。在股票交易中，人們往往選擇同行業(yè)的其他股票進行比較，而這就可能造成同一領(lǐng)域價格的普遍高估。3、損失厭惡：指同等數(shù)值的價格變動，損失產(chǎn)生的心理效應(yīng)作用更大。</p><p>　　3.1.2 投資者的情緒作用</p><p>　　Lee, Shleifer &

78、; Thaler(LST)在DSSW的基礎(chǔ)上提出了投資者情緒假說，該假說認為折價的變化可以通過投資者情緒的變化來進行解釋(1991)。朱偉驊和張宗新(2008)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，我國投資者情緒容易受到噪音交易者的影響，其他交易者可以巧妙地利用噪聲交易者的策略在博弈中獲得超額的利潤。在市場波動的機制中，投資者的情緒和股價的變化存在動態(tài)的關(guān)系，股價泡沫的存在引發(fā)了正反饋，促進了投機性泡沫的形成。</p><p>　　West

79、erhoff(2004)通過建立股票市場投資者行為模型結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)，從整體上來看，股票市場呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢，但是有時候股票會急劇下跌，當股價波動較小時投資者會保持冷靜，但是當股價波動較大時，無論是股價上漲或下跌，都會使投資者同時產(chǎn)生貪婪和恐懼的情緒。這種情緒的波動作為股價的正反饋可能繼續(xù)影響股價的變化，因此對股價的過度波動有一定的解釋作用。</p><p>　　情緒對個體決策的影響在心理學領(lǐng)域有豐富的研究成果。馬英(20

80、09)的研究表明，不同的情緒效價對個體的決策行為產(chǎn)生不同的影響。在積極情緒下下，個體出價更高。消極效價下，個體表現(xiàn)出較低的出價。因此在牛市情形下，股民情緒高漲，決策更加冒進，對股票價格形成較高的股指，導致了股票價格的過度上漲；而當股票下跌，股民消極情緒明顯，股票估值下降，導致價格的跌幅過大。</p><p>　　3.1.3 投資者的不成熟特征</p><p>　　中國的股票市場比較年輕，投

81、資者的經(jīng)驗不足。一方面，許多的中國股民并沒有相關(guān)的知識和經(jīng)驗，很多股民遵循著“追漲殺跌”的投資策略，而這種策略往往使得股價過度波動；另一方面，一些股民在經(jīng)歷過中國歷史上的大幅下跌后，恐懼情緒較大，因此可能對股價的暫時性下跌存在過度的反應(yīng)。李雄軍(2007)在總結(jié)過度波動的原因時指出，中國股市上漲時，大家爭先恐后進入，聽聞要跌便該快賣出，高換手率導致了股價較大的波動，實際上更具備了賭博的性質(zhì)。</p><p>　　

82、另一方面，中國投資者融資結(jié)構(gòu)也不成熟。中國股民散戶居多，融資成本較大，投資組合內(nèi)容單一，杠桿水平較高，導致他們風險承受能力有限，導致其不愿長期持有股票，投機性質(zhì)更加明顯。高杠桿率導致了所謂的“羊群效應(yīng)”，政府的政策被過分解讀，股民擔心被套，因此寧愿“割肉”賣出股票，導致股票市場崩盤似下跌。</p><p><b>　　3.2 上市公司</b></p><p>　　3.

83、2.1 信息披露</p><p>　　Keown、Pinkerton(1981)的研究表明，公司的股價上漲的40%-50%出現(xiàn)在兼并公告公開發(fā)布前，因此他們斷言說內(nèi)幕交易是具有普遍性的。曾穎、陸正飛(2006)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)信息披露的質(zhì)量影響了股權(quán)融資的成本。因此，良好的信息披露有利于合理股價的形成，但是吳曙霞(2006)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，我國出證券、銀行、保險公司以外的其他上市公司信息披露并不理想。</p>&

84、lt;p>　　信息披露的主要問題包括真實性問題和準確性問題(陳崢嶸&潘妙麗，2012)。我國上市公司的信息披露失真主要表現(xiàn)在上市公司信息披露存在虛假陳述和虛假記載等現(xiàn)象，即在信息披露的文件上做出與事實真相不符的記載。從信息披露違規(guī)的內(nèi)容看，涉及關(guān)聯(lián)交易、違規(guī)擔保、實際控制人變動、公司對外投資等重大事件。而信息的準確性是指披露信息準確、無誤、易懂?！柏攧?wù)造假”、“公司印象管理”等現(xiàn)象層出不窮。</p><

85、p>　　公司信息披露的不完善導致投資者在選擇公司的時候無法獲得全部信息，無法做出符合理性的決策。由于信息的不確定性，投資者往往在投資決策過程中加入自己的主觀臆測，這也是造成股價過度波動的重要原因之一。</p><p>　　3.2.2 企業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型</p><p>　　中國當前正出于產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型期，大量企業(yè)調(diào)整經(jīng)營策略，增加產(chǎn)業(yè)創(chuàng)新，加大研發(fā)投入，使得投資者企業(yè)未來判斷的不確定性增加，因此不同

86、投資者之間判斷的差距也就越大。姚靠華等人(2013年)基于對創(chuàng)業(yè)板的股票研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，當企業(yè)采取新的研發(fā)投入或者獲得研發(fā)項目進展時，股票市場的投資者能夠做出反應(yīng)。研發(fā)投入與企業(yè)未來股價波動存在正相關(guān)關(guān)系，而研發(fā)項目進展與企業(yè)未來股價波動負相關(guān)。在其他條件不變的情況下，研發(fā)進展越成功的項目與企業(yè)未來股價波動的負相關(guān)程度越強；研發(fā)進展越成功的項目對研發(fā)投入和企業(yè)未來股價波動的負向調(diào)節(jié)作用越強。中國企業(yè)當前正處于轉(zhuǎn)型初期，有大量的研發(fā)投入，但是項

87、目進展并不是十分明確，因此股價過度波動也是與研究結(jié)果相符的。</p><p><b>　　3.3 國家層面</b></p><p>　　3.3.1 宏觀經(jīng)濟</p><p>　　股價波動于宏觀經(jīng)濟之間應(yīng)該存在一定的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系，經(jīng)濟的狀況能夠影響公司的運營狀況，進而影響了股市的回報率，此股市素有國民經(jīng)濟“晴雨表”之稱。Hamilton(1996)研

88、究認為股票市場的波動性反應(yīng)了經(jīng)濟總體的活動，具有一定的預測作用。Ebell & Haefke(2009)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，經(jīng)濟蕭條時期宏觀經(jīng)濟變量的變動能夠引起股市的巨大變動。劉家樹(2008)對中國長期的宏觀經(jīng)濟變動觀察發(fā)現(xiàn)，股價與宏觀經(jīng)濟存在正相關(guān)的關(guān)系。肖變英(2004)研究表明，從長期來看，我國上證指數(shù)與GDP和貨幣供應(yīng)量保持同向增長，與物價、利率、匯率負相關(guān)，但短期結(jié)論完全相反。</p><p>　　3

89、.3.2 國家政策</p><p>　　股價波動與國家政策之間的關(guān)系是不言而明的，尤其是在中國，股市的興衰離不開國家的政策支持。李成剛(2003)認為中國股市的交易行為與中國特殊的“政策市”制度息息相關(guān)。彭文平、肖繼輝(2002)的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，政府運用政策調(diào)整股市不但不能起到穩(wěn)定股市的作用，反而會造成和加劇股市的波動。2015年中國股市迎來了新的春天，這與中國政府對股市的推動作用密不可分，政府對“國企改革”、“互聯(lián)

90、網(wǎng)+”、“國企重組”的大力推動引發(fā)了轟轟烈烈的炒作熱潮?？梢钥闯觯袊善笔袌龅倪^度波動離不開國家政策這一雙無形的手，推動了人們對信息的過度反應(yīng)。</p><p>　　3.3.3 制度因素</p><p>　　中國在股權(quán)分置制度改革后流通股股數(shù)增加，極大地緩解了中國股票市場估計不足的問題。但是，從我國股票發(fā)行制度本身來看，這種審核過于嚴苛、上市過于困難的制度仍舊極大地限制了上市公司的數(shù)量，