我國(guó)貨幣政策效應(yīng)時(shí)滯與中介目標(biāo)選擇.pdf

1、天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文我國(guó)貨幣政策效應(yīng)時(shí)滯與中介目標(biāo)選擇姓名：徐坤申請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別：碩士專業(yè)：數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)指導(dǎo)教師：李臘生20080501AbstractwithinitiallyestablishedthefunctioningframeworkforChinasmarketeconomysystem，thewayofmacroeconomiccontrolalsohastherelevantchange，whichlsmainlyind

2、irectcontroIofmacro—controlpatternformationofmonetarypolicysomonetarypolicyisplayingmoreandmoreimportantroleinthemacroeconomicregulationandcontr01ItdependsonseveraIreasonstoachievethedesiredtargetofmonetarypolicysimpleme

3、ntationOneofthemajorreasonsfortheeffectsofmonetarypolicyis“TimeLag。Inrealitythepolicy。seffectactuallycannotappearimmediatelybecauseitispresentaperiodoftimeintervaIthatisthetimelagofmonetarypolicyTimelagoftenchanges，soits

4、presentincreasestheriskofmonetarypolicymacrocontr01Itbecomesmoredi仟icultforCentraIBanktodothesuitabletestpromptlytomonetarypolicyTherefore，theresearchofmonetarypolicytimeIagcouldcontributetothetheoreticaIreferenceofmonet

5、arypolicye仟ciencyMeanwhile，atChina’stransition，howtorealizeandgrasptheoutsidetimeIagineffectofmonetarypolicyandhowtochooseappropriateintermediatetargettomonitortheimpactoftheimplementationofmonetarypolicyforimprovingthee

6、fficiencyofpolicymacroeconomiccontrol，keepingpricestabilityandpromotingeconomicdevelopmenthasanimportantpracticalsignificanceFrommacropointofviewthispaperusestWOimportantconductionchanneIofmonetarypolicy—monetarychannela

7、ndcreditchanneItodotheexperiencedanalysisoftimelagineffectofmonetarypolicyIttakesnarrowsenseofmonetarysupplyM1marketinterestrateR，creditscaleLoanandothersasvariabletobuildVARmodeItoexplaineconomicoutputandprices，gainsthe

8、totaIeconomicoutputimpulseresponsefunctioncausedbymonetarypolicyofadjustment，summarizetheskilIofvariancedecomposition，andthengetstheimportantfactorofaffectingtheoutsidetimeIagineffectofmonetarypolicyAccordingtotherelevan

9、tprinciples，wechooseoneofthoseeconomicvariables，whichhastheshortertimeoftimelagandtheIargercontributionofvariablewithfinaIeconomicoutputandpricestargetasmonetarypolicyintermediatetarget，itexaminestherationalityoftakingM1

10、astheintermediatetargetIntheend，thispapertakesdynamiccomparisonandanalysistesearchtheappropriateanswerofthecontroversiaIquestioninnationaIacademiccircle，whichis“Nowadays，isitessentiaItoturntheactivepolicyM1intoefficiency

11、ofmonetarypolicyintermediatetargetTheempiricalresultshowsthat，duringthereaIconductionofmonetarypolicyinChinaM1displaysthebettereffectinthefieldofbothtimelagineffectandvariancecontributionsoitisarathersuitableintermediate

12、targetinrecentyearsIncontractthecreditchanneIhaspoorperformance，becauseofthecreditscalecontributiontothefinaItargetisiustalittle，soltcanbeconsideredastheunsuitableintermediatetargetItconformstotherealityofmonetarypolicyi

13、ntermediatetargetattheendof20centuryjnChinaTheresultofdynamicanalysisindicatesthat，withdeepeningoftheopenpolicycontinuouslytheabilityofM1asthemonetarypolicyintermediatetargetisloweringandtheefficiencyofintermediatetarget