基于分類法的機(jī)場貨運(yùn)吞吐量預(yù)測方法研究.pdf

1、南京航空航天大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文基于分類法的機(jī)場貨運(yùn)吞吐量預(yù)測方法研究姓名：南娟申請學(xué)位級別：碩士專業(yè)：交通運(yùn)輸規(guī)劃與管理指導(dǎo)教師：夏洪山20081201機(jī)場貨運(yùn)吞吐量預(yù)測方法研究 II Abstract For a long time, air cargo throughputs are predicted by screening from a variety of methods according to precision or i

2、mproving certain method. There is little systematic exposition of their generating mechanisms and influencing factors. What is more, how to select a proper method for a given airport hasn't been solved in theory, esp

3、ecially for the differences between new airports and existing ones, which leads to the forecasting uncertainty. In this paper, firstly, the generating mechanism and influencing factors of air cargo throughputs are analy

4、zed. Based on the analysis, as well as existing algorithms and their adaptabilities, a set of indexes is selected for throughput forecast. Then the existing algorithms and their applicability are summarized and analyzed.

5、 To overcome the deficiency of the current algorithms, the comprehensive evaluation index system based upon entropy method is introduced for new airports throughput forecast, which solved the problem of quantitative pred

6、ictions for new airports in lacking of historical data. In a case study of freight throughput of Huanglong airport, this algorithm proves to be more accurate. Besides, an improved combination forecasting algorithm is giv

7、en to forecast the freight volume of existing airports. And the econometric forecasting method used in this algorithm has been improved. By using the method of factor analysis in the econometric model, the multicollinear

8、ity in the original econometric model is eliminated and the new regression coefficients pass the significance test. In addition, the weights are gained by entropy method. In another case study of the freight throughput o