外文翻譯---復蘇模式中國應(yīng)該對美國的量化寬松政策感到擔心嗎

1、<p>　　本科畢業(yè)設(shè)計(論文)</p><p>　　外文翻譯（附外文原文）</p><p>　　學 院： 管理學院 </p><p>　　課題名稱： </p><p>　　專業(yè)(方向)： 國際經(jīng)濟與貿(mào)易

2、 </p><p>　　班 級： </p><p>　　學 生： </p><p>　　指導教師： </p><p>

3、;　　日 期： </p><p>　　復蘇模式：中國應(yīng)該對美國的量化寬松政策感到擔心嗎？</p><p>　　美聯(lián)儲（Federal Reserve）主席本·伯南克（Ben Bernanke）今年2月在華盛頓特區(qū)發(fā)表的一次演講中談到，盡管付出了各種努力，不過，這個國家的就業(yè)率回升到危機之前5%左右這一讓人更寬慰的

4、水平可能還需要很長的時間。演講結(jié)束后，當被問及，目前這一輪政策在6月結(jié)束后，美聯(lián)儲是否有必要推出另一輪所謂的“量化寬松”（quantitative easing，簡稱QE）政策時，伯南克回答說，“美聯(lián)儲將會按其以往的方式做出決策”——也就是通過觀察各種經(jīng)濟指標來做出決策，其中就包括失業(yè)率。幾個月以來，美國的失業(yè)率一直徘徊在10%左右。如果美國的失業(yè)率持續(xù)高企，美聯(lián)儲出臺第三輪量化寬松貨幣（QE）政策的可能性就將不斷增加。但如果美國繼續(xù)執(zhí)

5、行QE政策，將會在世界各地遭致抗議，其中的代表就是中國。</p><p>　　前兩輪量化寬松政策分別于2009年3月和2010年11月開始實施，期間，美聯(lián)儲大量印鈔用以購買銀行的債券以及抵押貸款證券——購買的目的旨在刺激美國的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展，降低借貸成本。但是，全球各地都能聽到這樣的批評：第二輪量化寬松政策同樣觸發(fā)了全球商品價格的急劇飆升，北京的官員對此深表認同，并稱，熱錢因此流入了自己的國家。他們認為，如果出臺第三輪

6、量化寬松政策，也將會產(chǎn)生這樣的結(jié)果。就這種擔心的理由是否充分的問題，專家各執(zhí)一詞。</p><p>　　上海復旦大學國際經(jīng)濟學教授田素華指出，第二輪量化寬松政策對中國的影響比第一輪更大?！暗谝惠喠炕瘜捤烧咧皇峭ㄟ^貿(mào)易渠道影響到了中國，而在實施第二輪量化寬松政策期間，美國的銀行和抵押貸款公司發(fā)放信貸的能力得到了加強，所以，貨幣乘數(shù)（money multiplier）（也稱為‘貨幣擴張系數(shù)’或‘貨幣擴張乘數(shù)’）放大

7、了中國受到的影響?！彼劦?。</p><p>　　位于美國華盛頓特區(qū)的戰(zhàn)略和國際研究中心（Center for Strategic and International Studies，簡稱CSIS）的查爾斯·弗雷曼（Charles Freeman）則反駁說，第二輪量化寬松政策的主要影響是政治性的?！八尡本γ缆?lián)儲的美元長期政策頗感緊張，中國政府擔心，美國會長期奉行弱勢美元政策（weak dollar

8、policy）?！?曾任職美國對中國事務(wù)貿(mào)易代表助理的弗雷曼談到，“最近，中國對美國財政部和美聯(lián)儲施壓，要求它們再次保證，量化寬松只是短期政策?！?lt;/p><p>　　美國財政部負責經(jīng)濟政策的前助理部長、馬里蘭大學（University of Maryland）國際經(jīng)濟政策教授菲利普·斯瓦格（Philip Swagel）認為，第二輪量化寬松政策的總體影響，尤其是對中國的影響，并不像人們想象的那么顯著?！?/p>

9、中國的過度反應(yīng)是毫無緣由的。”他談到，“總體來說，這個政策是美聯(lián)儲發(fā)出的一個信號，它不能讓美國發(fā)生通貨緊縮，并且將有積極的表現(xiàn)如果美國經(jīng)濟未能反彈。最終，這一政策對于國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟以及在國際社會造成的溢出效應(yīng)也是相當有限的?！?lt;/p><p><b>　　通貨膨脹惡化</b></p><p>　　然而，盡管該政策的影響相對較小，不過，對包括中國在內(nèi)的很多經(jīng)濟體而言，溢出效應(yīng)

10、則是在一個敏感時期發(fā)生的。上海復旦大學的金融學教授鄭輝認為，自前兩輪量化寬松政策實施以后，在全球市場流通的美元更多了，從而降低了美元對其他主要貨幣的比價。他還談到，因為國際商品是以美元定價的，所以，從石油到白糖，所有大宗商品的價格都上漲了。</p><p>　　舉例來說，3月，聯(lián)合國糧農(nóng)組織糧食價格指數(shù)（FAO Food Price Index）——記錄一攬子食品國際價格每月變動情況的指標——平均為230點，比2

11、月的峰值下降了2.9%，但比去年3月則上漲了37%。與此同時，石油價格則觸及到了每桶120美元的高位，這是兩年多來的最高價格水平，當然，中東和北非地區(qū)的動蕩也是影響目前石油價格的重要因素。</p><p>　　然而，鄭輝并不是唯一強調(diào)美聯(lián)儲這種寬松貨幣政策應(yīng)該為商品價格的上漲承擔某些負責的人。正如日本銀行（Bank of Japan）的一份報告指出的：“從全球來看，寬松的貨幣政策在商品價格的迅速上漲中扮演著重要的

12、角色，這種政策既刺激了人們對商品的實際需求，同時也促使更多的投資流向了商品市場?！?lt;/p><p>　　對中國來說，商品價格的變化非常重要。在擔心公眾對能源和食品的更高支出出現(xiàn)強烈反應(yīng)的時候，高企的商品價格讓這個依賴進口的經(jīng)濟體感到日子很不好過。“除了繼續(xù)從全球進口這些商品以外，中國沒有多少選擇，”鄭輝表示，“即使原油價格和食品價格不斷攀升，中國也不太可能減少在進口這些商品上的開銷?！?lt;/p>&l

13、t;p>　　然而，馬里蘭大學的斯瓦格認為，“中國自己的貨幣政策本身就存在問題，中國通貨膨脹的最大驅(qū)動因素是中國的貨幣政策。中國一直讓人民幣保持弱勢，并與美元‘軟掛鉤’（soft peg），從而，導致過多的貨幣在這個經(jīng)濟體系中流通，并最終抬高了通貨膨脹。”</p><p>　　這個國家的中央銀行中國人民銀行一直在與通貨膨脹抗爭。舉例來說，4月初，它出臺了提高商業(yè)銀行存款準備金率的措施，以收緊信貸，同時，它還將

14、一年期存貸款基準利率提高了25個基點，這是今年第二次提高基準利率，也是自去年年初以來的第四次提高基準利率。在此期間，中國人民銀行還稱，將允許人民幣在更大范圍內(nèi)兌換，而不僅限于包括美元在內(nèi)的七種貨幣。外匯交易員認為，這一舉措有助于減少美元在決定中國貨幣價值上的權(quán)重。</p><p><b>　　推卸責任</b></p><p>　　對美國而言，第二輪量化寬松政策是用以提

15、振這個國家經(jīng)濟的幾種政策杠桿之一。“因為美聯(lián)儲的職責就是調(diào)節(jié)經(jīng)濟運行，創(chuàng)造就業(yè)機會以達到充分就業(yè)，所以，核心問題是，在當時，2010年，用以加速經(jīng)濟復蘇的可用手段都是什么呢？”馬里蘭大學公共政策學院的麥克?戴斯勒（I. M. (Mac) Destler）教授問道。他認為，美聯(lián)儲已經(jīng)將利率保持在很低的水平了，進一步降低利率的空間很有限?！爱敃r的另一個選擇是全新的經(jīng)濟刺激計劃。然而，從政治上來看似乎并不可行。所以，另一輪量化寬松政策就是僅有

16、的幾種選擇之一了?！?lt;/p><p>　　但是，第二輪量化寬松政策的出臺時機并不“走運”，政策的推出恰好在11月于漢城舉辦的G20峰會（G20 Summit）的前幾天，戴斯勒談到?！暗?，就美國政治而言，這一時機是合情合理的。美聯(lián)儲不想讓自己看起來具有黨派性，不想讓自己看似在支持民主黨政府。因此，在中期大選剛一結(jié)束，它就宣布將實施第二輪量化寬松政策，而這個時間剛好處在漢城峰會召開之前?！碑斎蝾I(lǐng)導人在漢城聚集一堂

17、時，包括巴西、印度和韓國在內(nèi)的幾個國家，與中國一起對美國的政策提出了批評?！暗诙喠炕瘜捤烧咦屆绹谂c中國關(guān)于世界經(jīng)濟重現(xiàn)平衡的爭論中只能采取守勢。因為中國對量化寬松政策感到不滿，同時，其他國家也加入了批評美聯(lián)儲舉措的陣營，所以對美國來說，在漢城峰會上讓其他國家和自己一道在貨幣升值等議題上說服中國就變得更加困難了?！?lt;/p><p>　　戴斯勒認為，伯南克本來是可以通過在國內(nèi)外說明出臺第二輪量化寬松政策的原由而

18、避免遭到批評的?！八究梢越忉屒宄氖牵瑢γ缆?lián)儲來說，為刺激美國經(jīng)濟，推行第二輪量化寬松政策的舉措是必要的；此外，該政策在國際社會產(chǎn)生的溢出效應(yīng)也是可以掌控的，而美國經(jīng)濟更為強勁的復蘇則會讓全世界經(jīng)濟受益?！?lt;/p><p><b>　　第三次會走運嗎？</b></p><p>　　復旦大學的田素華告誡說，美國出臺第三輪量化寬松政策的巨大風險在于，美元的信用將會因此而

19、受到挑戰(zhàn)?！叭绻蚋鱾€國家在進行國際貿(mào)易時避開美元，那么，美元就會回流到美國，這對美國來說會是個嚴重的問題?！?lt;/p><p>　　復旦大學的鄭輝認為，如果美聯(lián)儲進一步推行寬松政策，那么，中國很可能不得不讓人民幣升值?！暗谌喠炕瘜捤烧叩韧诿涝牧硪惠喐偁幮再H值（competitive depreciation）。因為人民幣與美元‘軟掛鉤’，所以，人民幣對其他主要貨幣的匯率也會降低。從而，日本和歐盟等中國的

20、主要貿(mào)易伙伴就會深受不公平的貿(mào)易劣勢之苦。從這個角度來說，第三輪量化寬松政策將會對北京加快人民幣升值的步伐形成壓力。”</p><p>　　但是斯瓦格表示，讓人民幣進一步升值對中國的經(jīng)濟有好處?！爸袊鴳?yīng)該允許人民幣升值。強勢的人民幣可以有效降低信貸的增長，而且能有效抑制通貨膨脹。同時，即使人民幣升值對出口部門有負面影響，中國也有其他選擇來保持其經(jīng)濟強勁增長?！?lt;/p><p>　　根據(jù)“中

21、國金融在線”（Finance China）報道，最近，中國國務(wù)院發(fā)展研究中心的一位資深研究員預測，人民幣升值對出口導向型企業(yè)的影響不會像很多人擔心的那么顯著。雖然出口產(chǎn)品的價格會提高，不過，人民幣升值也降低了重要部件的進口成本。</p><p>　　至于說第三輪量化寬松政策是否會刺激熱錢流入中國的問題，最近的數(shù)據(jù)表明，該政策的影響可能很小。《金融時報》的《中國投資參考》（FT China Confidential

22、）2月份發(fā)布的一份報告稱，中國外匯管理局估計，通過資本賬戶流入中國的熱錢，從2009年的1萬億美元，減少到了目前的2，900億美元，這表明，即便在實施量化寬松政策，中國也有能力有效控制資金的流入量。</p><p>　　或許，第一輪、第二輪以及或許會推出的第三輪量化寬松政策更會導致的結(jié)果，是世界上兩個最大經(jīng)濟體之間的口水戰(zhàn)?！皟蓚€國家都在為自己的問題而指責對方?！彼雇吒癖硎?，“事實上，美國的問題并不是中國引起的，

23、反過來，中國的問題也不是由美國造成的?！?lt;/p><p>　　附注：本文摘自“賓夕法尼亞大學網(wǎng)站期刊”，發(fā)布日期 : 2011.04.13</p><p><b>　　附原文：</b></p><p>　　Recovery Mode: Should China Worry About the U.S.'s Quantitative Ea

24、sing?</p><p>　　In a speech in February in Washington, D.C., Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said that despite various efforts, it could be a long time before employment levels in the country return to

25、more comfortable pre-downturn levels of around 5%. And when asked after his speech whether another round of the Fed's so-called "quantitative easing" would be necessary after the current round (known as QE2

26、) comes to an end in June, Bernanke replied, “The Fed will decide the same way it always does" -- by l</p><p>　　As under the first two rounds of quantitative easing (beginning in March 2009 and November

27、 2010) the Fed would print money and use the funds to buy bonds and mortgage-related securities -- purchases aimed at lowering borrowing costs in the U.S. and stimulating the nation's economy. But officials in Beijin

28、g have echoed criticism heard elsewhere around the world that QE2 has also triggered a sharp increase in world commodity prices and an influx of hot money into their country. They expect more of</p><p>　　Tia

29、n Suhua, an international economics professor at Shanghai Fudan University, notes that the effect of QE2 has been greater than QE1. “The first round of QE only affected China through the trade channel, while in the secon

30、d round, the ability of U.S. banks and mortgage companies to issue credit was strengthened, so the effect on China was amplified by the money multiplier,” he says.</p><p>　　The QE2's primary effect is po

31、litical, counters Charles Freeman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, D.C.-based public policy research center. “It is causing a lot of nervousness in Beijing about the long-term policy o

32、f the Fed [concerning] the dollar, and the Chinese administration is worried that the U.S. will pursue a long-term weak dollar policy," says Freeman, a former assistant U.S. trade representative for China affairs. &

33、quot;Recently, China stepped up pressure</p><p>　　Philip Swagel, former assistant secretary for economic policy at the Treasury Department in the U.S. and professor of international economic policy at Univer

34、sity of Maryland, agrees that the economic impact of QE2 in general, and on China in particular, has not been as dramatic as it is often made out to be. “Chinese rhetoric is off the mark,” he says. ““QE2 is mainly a sign

35、al that the Federal Reserve will not allow deflation and would act in greater strength had the economy not rebounded.  In t</p><p>　　Inflation and Aggravation</p><p>　　Yet even relatively s

36、mall, the spillover comes at a sensitive time for many economies, including China's. Zheng Hui, finance professor at Shanghai Fudan University, says that since the first two rounds of quantitative easing, more U.S. d

37、ollars have been circulating in world markets, weakening the value of the dollar against other major currencies. Given that international commodities are priced in dollars, he says, everything from oil to sugar has becom

38、e more expensive.</p><p>　　In March, for example, the FAO Food Price Index -- a measure of the monthly change in the international prices of a basket of food commodities -- averaged 230 points, down 2.9

39、% from its peak in February, but 37% above March last year. Oil, meanwhile, hit $120 a barrel -- the highest level in more than two years -- though the turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa is the big factor influe

40、ncing oil prices currently.</p><p>　　Nonetheless, Zheng isn't alone in underscoring the extent to which accommodative policies, such as the Fed's, should shoulder some of the blame for the rise commo

41、dity prices. As a report by the Bank of Japan notes, “Globally, accommodative monetary conditions have played an important role in the surge in commodity prices, both by stimulating physical demand for commodities and by

42、 driving more investment flows into … commodity markets.”</p><p>　　For China, that matters a lot. Its import-dependent economy is feeling the pinch of higher commodity prices amid concerns about major public

43、 backlashes about higher fuel and food bills. “China has few choices but to continue importing those global commodities,” says Zheng. “Even if crude oil prices and food prices keep soaring, China is unlikely to reduce it

44、s expenditures on these imports.”</p><p>　　Yet according to University of Maryland's Swagel, “China’s own monetary policy is problematic in the first place and the biggest driver of inflation in China is

45、 the Chinese monetary policy. The main fact is that China is maintaining a weak yuan and the soft peg to the dollar forces China to have excessive liquidity that boosts inflation.”</p><p>　　The country's

46、 central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), has been trying to combat inflation. In early April, for example, it raised the required reserve ratios of commercial banks and tightened credit, and it raised the be

47、nchmark one-year borrowing and lending interest rates by 25 basis points -- the second time that it raised the benchmark interest rate this year and the fourth time since the start of last year. Around the same time, the

48、 PBOC also said it will allow the renminbi to be tr</p><p>　　Blame Game</p><p>　　As for the U.S., the QE2 was one of several policy levers pulled to improve the country's economy. “Since the

49、 responsibility of the Federal Reserve is to regulate the economy, create jobs and move to full employment, the central question is, what means were available to accelerate the recovery [in 2010]?” asks I. M. (Mac) Destl

50、er, a professor at the University of Maryland's School of Public Policy. He says the Fed was already keeping interest rates very low, leaving little room to lower rates fu</p><p>　　But the timing of the

51、QE2's unveiling was "unfortunate,” coming as it did just days before the G20 Summit in Seoul in November, says Destler. "But it made sense in terms of U.S. politics. The Fed does not want to look like it is

52、 partisan and supports a Democratic administration. Therefore, it announced QE2 immediately after the mid-term elections, which happened to be just before the Seoul summit.” When world leaders gathered in Seoul, several

53、countries, including Brazil, India and South Korea, </p><p>　　Destler reckons that Bernanke made a mistake in not giving a serious international justification of QE2 in time, hence putting himself under inte

54、rnational criticism. "He should have explained that it was necessary for the Federal Reserve to implement QE2 to stimulate the U.S. economy, that the international spillover was manageable and the world would benefi

55、t from a stronger U.S. recovery,” he says.</p><p>　　Third Time Lucky?</p><p>　　Tian of Fudan University warns that the big danger of a QE3 is that it will challenge the credibility of the U.S. d

56、ollar. “If countries around the world bypass the U.S. dollar during international trade, dollars will flow back to the U.S and that would be a serious problem for the U.S.,” he says.</p><p>　　Zheng of Fudan

57、University notes that in the event of further easing by the Fed, China will most likely have to allow the RMB to appreciate. “A third round of QE equals another round of competitive depreciation of the U.S. dollar,” he s

58、ays. “Since the RMB maintains a soft peg to the dollar, the RMB's exchange rate will also depreciate against other major currencies. China’s major trading partners, such as Japan and the European Union, will suffer f

59、rom an unfair trade disadvantage. In this sense, </p><p>　　Enabling the RMB to appreciate further than it has in recent months might be good for China’s economy, adds Swagel. “China should allow the RMB to a

60、ppreciate,” he says. “A stronger Yuan will effectively reduce credit growth and curb inflation. Even if allowing for faster currency appreciation will have a negative impact on the export sector, China can still take act

61、ion to keep its economy strong. ”</p><p>　　According to online information provider Finance China, a senior researcher with the Development Research Center of China's State Council recently predicted tha

62、t the impact of an RMB appreciation on export-oriented enterprises would not be as big as many fear. Though the price of exports would increase, an appreciation would also lower the cost of imports.</p><p>　

63、　As for whether QE3 could trigger more hot money flowing into China, recent data suggests the impact might be muted. A report published in February by FT China Confidential said the Chinese State Administration of Foreig

64、n Exchange estimates that the amount of hot money currently reaching China through the capital account has decreased to around US$290 billion from US$1 trillion in 2009, indicating that even with the QEs, China has been

65、able to handle the inflows effectively.</p><p>　　Perhaps more telling about QE1, QE2, and the prospect of QE3, is the war of words unleashed by the world's two largest economic heavyweights as a result.