中央銀行外匯干預效力研究.pdf

1、高跚大學Y810857碩士研究生畢業(yè)(學位)論文姓名：劉曉博年級：2002級專業(yè)：世界經濟研究方向：國際金融管理論文題目：中央銀行外匯干預效力研究導師：戴金平教授完成日期：2005年4月南開大學經濟學院國際經濟研究所二oo五年四月AbstractWiththeaccelerativeglobalizationoffinance，thefluctuationofexchangeratebecomesmoreacute，thismakest

2、heeffectivenessofforeignexchangeinterventionturnintoamostpopularhottopicamongtheacademiaCentralBanksintervenedinforeignexchangemarketfrequentlyduetovariouspurposesAccordingtotheconventionalideaforeignexchangeintervention

3、isinvalidbaseonahypothesisthattheforeignanddomesticassetsareperfectsubstitutesButinfactassetsareimperfectsubstitutes，thusinterventioncanbeeffectivethroughtheportfoliobalancechannelandsignalchannelThispapermainlystudiesoi

4、lthreeimportantissuesFirstlyweprovetheeffectivenessoftheCentralBankinterventionbytheoreticalanalysisincludingthecorrectionoftheinterestpowerparitytheoryandthestudyoftheactionprocessthroughthementionedchannelsInthefollowi

5、ngchapterwehaveademonstrationresearchtocheckupthetheoreticalconclusionInrecentliteratures，thedemonstrationstudiesaremostlyfledtoaidentificationofexchangeratechanges，usingunitarycriteriontoestimatetheinterventionimpact，so

6、medatauptopresentalsomissedSointhispaperconsideringtheshortcomingmentionedabove，eventstudyisadopted，choosingdailyinventiondataofJapanfrom1991to2004，multi—criterionsuchasprofitabilitydirection，smoothingareappliedaswellThu

7、swecometotheconclusionthatCentralBankimerventioniseffectivegenerallyandtheimpactisdiversifiedaccordingtothedifferentinterventiondirectionSowecansaytheoutcomesupportthetheoreticalconclusionperfectlyThirdlywhatneedtobestud

8、iednextistoanswerwhetherCentralBankCallconductitsinterventionoperationsinsomegoodmethodtoincreasethelikelihoodtoachievingRsobjectivesThisissueisaddressedbye虹matingthebinarychoiceLogitmodel，selectingfivegroupsofconditiona