以房地產市場為載體的貨幣政策傳導機制研究

1、南京財經大學碩士學位論文以房地產市場為載體的貨幣政策傳導機制研究姓名：張國政申請學位級別：碩士專業(yè)：西方經濟學指導教師：趙春玲20110309IIABSTRACTStudyonmoarypolicyfocusesonthemoarytransmissionmechanism(MTM).Inrecentdecadesvolatilityofassetpricesasthedevelopmentofassetsmarkethasbeenan

2、imptantfactinmacroeconomicfluctuations.EconomistsmoarypolicymakerspaymemeattentiontotheroleofassetpricesintheMTM.Presentstudiesaremainlyonstocksbondsfeignexchangeassetsbutnottoomuchonrealestatemarket.Sincetherefmofhousin

3、gcommercializationin1998China’srealestatemarkethasachronicprosperitywithincreasingtradeprice.ThedevelopmentofrealestatemarketnotonlycreatesanewtransmissionchannelofmoarypolicybutalsomakestheMTMmecomplexmoarypolicymediffi

4、culttobecarriedout.Asaresultit’sveryimptanttoconductthestudyontheroletransmissionefficiencyofrealestatemarketintheMTM.Itcannotonlyhelpustojudgehowtherealestatemarketwillperfmunderabackgroundofmoderateloosemoarypolicybuta

5、lsohelppolicymakerstowkefficientlytomaintainthestabilitydevelopmentofourcommunity.TosolvetheproblemreferredpreviouslythispaperfirstlyconstructsatheeticalanalysisframeofMTMthroughtherealestatemarketwhichhastwostages.Thefi

6、rststageisfrommoarypolicyvariablesrelatedtorealestatepricethesecondoneisfromrealestatepricetoconsumptioninvestment.Secondly，thispaperwillsetupaVARmodelbasedonthemonthlydatafromJanuary2000toDecember2009theneconometricsmet

7、hodssuchasJohansencointegrationtestGrangercausalitytests，impulseresponsefunctionvariancedecomposition，willbeusedtotestwhetherthischannelisefficientnot.Theresultshowsthat:Thereisalongrunequilibriumrelationshipamongmoarypo

8、licyrealestatepriceentityeconomytheriseofrealestatepriceleadtotheincreaseofinvestmentthedecreaseofconsumptionofprivatesect.Asaresultthecompositionofinvestmentconsumptionwillchange.Tosolvesuchproblemsthispapergivessomepro

9、posesincludingimprovingtheregulationsystemofmoarypolicyperfectingChina’srealestatemarket.Theseproposalshavesomespecificvaluefreferencetopromoterealestatemarket’sdevelopmentmoarypolicy’senfcement.KEYWDS：MoaryPolicyMoaryTr